Expect the Unexpected: Illinois to have big year in 2009

Today IlliniBeat shares some perspective from a fan's point of view. Michael Carpenter is an Illinois graduate, Champaign resident, and life long Illini fan. Enjoy part one of his piece, followed by part two tomorrow including the beginning of Mizzou discussions.

~As a fan of Illinois football, I am all-too seasoned in the art of “Expect the Unexpected”.

After all, no matter the preseason expectations or level of talent throughout the depth chart, I’m always a bit uneasy making predictions because more often than not, they fall flat on their face and give me even further indication why I should emphasize the “if” when saying, “. . . IF I were a betting man . . .”

But, I am a betting man. And, for better or worse, an Illinois football fan. So as painful, arduous, downright torturous as it is for me to do this for fear of a jinx, I simply must.

The 2009 Illinois football season will be a good one.

How good? Good as in 9-3, 10-2 good. In Illinois Football-speak, really good.

How do I figure?

The Millennial Curse of the Even-Numbered Years

There are a variety of reasons why I came to this 9-10 win plateau as what this Illinois football team will accomplish, the first of which is based on some fact, some hyperbole, and some superstitious crap that goes naturally with being a fan.

In regards to preseason expectations, the 2009 version of Illinois football is very similar to the 2001 Ron Turner squad that wound up 10-2 with an appearance in the Sugar Bowl.

Both teams had high power offenses led by senior quarterbacks (Kurt Kittner, now Juice Williams) and a deep receiving corps (Brandon Lloyd, Walter Young, Greg Lewis and Aaron Moorehead in 2001; Arrelious Benn, Jarred Fayson, Jeff Cumberland, and others in 2009).


Both teams were coming off disappointing 5-win campaigns only a year after ending a long bowl game drought (the 1999 MicronPC.com Bowl followed by 5-6 in 2000; the 2008 Rose Bowl followed by 5-7 in 2008)


Both teams were led by coaches heading into their fifth year, a crucial year for any coach as for the first time, truly every player on the field was their own recruit (Turner’s 5th season was his best, with 10 wins and a record-setting offense; Zook’s 5th season = TBA)


It’s not as if there was a dramatic drop-off in talent from 1999 to 2000, let alone from 2007 to 2008. In fact, the talent may have improved in both of those years, only to see the wins go down and Illinois spending another bowl season on the couch. So what was the cause? Well, it could be that someone up there finds it funny that it’s been two decades since Illinois has made consecutive bowl appearances (why did you have to bolt for Texas, John Mackovic?). More realistically, it could be that all the bounces that went Illinois’ way in 1999 and 2007 went against them the following year.

Of course, it could actually be some sort of karmic punishment for Lou Tepper wanting to recruit Donovan McNabb as an athlete and not a quarterback that finds Illinois football hurtling back towards mediocrity in even-numbered years. If this is so, have fun this year – 2010 may be rough.

The Senior Quarterback Theory of Relativity

The most important individual position in any team sport is the quarterback, and in college football there is nothing more valuable than a good senior quarterback.

So let’s make one thing clear: Juice Williams is a good, sometimes great quarterback. If healthy, he will break every offensive record imaginable in Illinois football history. On the same token, the 2009 season is truly one where we can say, “Where Juice goes, so go the Illini”.

Nonetheless, for all the records on the verge of being broken, and for his pied piper-like influence in making Illinois football relevant again, Juice’s legacy is very much up in the air. Win 9-10 games and go to a January 1st bowl, he will be revered and placed on the mantle with Kurt Kittner, Jeff George, Tony Eason and Jack Trudeau. Win 5-6 games and sneak into a mediocre bowl, Juice’s legacy, for all the gaudy stats and pure talent, will fall somewhere in line with Johnny Johnson and Jason Verduzco – certainly not a bad place to be, but for all the expectations and for the bar set in 2007, it would be a lower plateau than Juice is capable of.

If I had to guess which direction Juice and Co. will take this year, it’s in the Kittner mold – a great offense, a shaky defense that is opportunistic and takeaway-happy, and a favorable schedule (yes, only 6 home games, but overall the schedule shapes up nicely) that leads to a bunch of wins, a happy bunch of Illinois fans, and Juice Williams taking his place among the Illini greats.

I’ll go ahead and make this proclamation: if Juice leads Illinois to a Big Ten Championship and a BCS appearance, I’ll pull a George Costanza and throw “Seven” into the mix for my first-born child’s name.