Expect the Unexpected: Illinois to have big year in 2009.

Today IlliniBeat takes a look at part 2 of Michael Carpenter's piece on 2009 expectations. We will also hear his picks for this weekend's Arch Rivalry game. If you have not read part 1, scroll down and enjoy it first.


The Universal Law of Turnover Ratio

For all the uncertainties in football, there is one constant: those who win the turnover ratio have a much better chance of winning. The difference between a Rose Bowl appearance and a 5-7 record is really as simple as this:

o In their 9-3 regular season in 2007, Illinois turned the ball over 23 times (10 fumbles lost, 13 interceptions), while they had 24 takeaways (8 fumbles recovered, 16 interceptions) for a turnover margin of +1.


o In their 5-7 season in 2008, Illinois turned the ball over 26 times (10 fumbles lost, 16 interceptions thrown), while they had 20 takeaways (14 fumbles recovered, 6 interceptions) for a turnover margin of -6.


I would say attributing a nearly-50% decline in wins to turnover margin is oversimplifying matters, but it isn’t. Up and down the lines of stats, yardage gained, points scored, points allowed, and even time of possession was remarkably similar from 2007 to 2008.

The importance of takeaways was never more apparent than the 2007 season that culminated with a Rose Bowl appearance. The huge home win against then-#19 Penn State was largely due to three interceptions in Illinois territory, along with two interceptions the next week that held off then-#5 Wisconsin. The cornerstone win of the 2007 season against top-ranked Ohio State in November was, along with Juice Williams’ dominance in the fourth quarter, due to three interceptions (including one by Anthony Steele in Illinois’ end zone to thwart a Buckeye scoring opportunity).

Unlike 2007, the bounces didn’t go Illinois’ way in 2008. Whether or not it was dumb luck or right place, right time is largely irrelevant; in football, as in any sport, there are ebbs and flows, and even if Illinois cuts the turnover margin closer to -2 or even a clean zero split, the wins will show for it.

First Thing’s First . . .

Beat Missouri.

Rarely would I give so much credence to one game, but we will have a very good idea come 6:00 p.m. Central Time on Saturday, September 5 just what to expect from this year’s version of Illinois football.

The atmosphere, as always, will be electric at Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis. The Illini will have a chip on their shoulder, and Missouri will have nothing to lose (replacing Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin is no small task, according to Vegas – Missouri is 7-point underdogs).

As much as I’d love to be in St. Louis for the game, and as confident as I am that Illinois will end the Arch Rivalry losing streak (is it a rivalry when it’s so one-sided? I guess we could ask Missouri basketball fans), I’m an Illinois fan – “Expect the Unexpected” has become that annoying voice in the back of my head that won’t leave until Zook shows he can build a consistent winner in Champaign.

So, instead of even subjecting myself to the possibility of facing Missouri fans after a loss and endure another Walk of Shame back to the hotel, I’ll be watching it in the comfort of my apartment in my favorite chair, with my brand new orange #9 Arrelious Benn jersey, some drinks, and – of course – a remote handy just in case Illinois screws up royally.

My thoughts ,though – from both my head and my heart – are that this is the year where Illinois finally does away with this monopolization Mizzou has had on the Arch Rivalry. Talent? Edge to Illinois. Experience? Edge to Illinois. Intangibles? While Missouri has the mental edge of four victories in a row in the series, there is just as strong an argument that Illinois, with the gigantic chip on their shoulder from Arch Rivalries-past, has an even larger advantage in intangibles.

So, two days from the beginning of the 2009 Illinois football season, fingers are crossed for a big win in St. Louis. Win against Missouri, and all bets are off for this version of Illinois football. Lose for the fifth time in as many chances, and bring out the anti-Zook faction that consistently champions the idea that the man can recruit with the best, but whose coaching ability reflects that of Dick Jauron.

Going against the grain of typical Illinois fandom – that is, one that is more than prepared for immense disappointment and underachievement – Illinois will win this game by a couple possessions-worth. The Illini offense is superior to Missouri’s offense; their defense can be no worse than an already shoddy Missouri defense; and, unlike Missouri, Illinois is lucky enough to have a solid placekicker in Matt Eller, along with return specialists in Arrelious Benn, Jarred Fayson, and – maybe, just maybe – freshman phenom Justin Green (and, rugby punts be damned, a decent punter in Anthony Santella). Add in the intangibles argument with a ticked-off Illini team ready to prove themselves after a disappointing 5-7 campaign, my pick is set:

FINAL SCORE: Illinois 35, Missouri 24

Mike's Outstanding Illini Pick: Martez Wilson, MLB – while Illinois will put up the points necessary to win, Martez Wilson’s debut at Middle Linebacker will be a major success. He will finish with a couple tackles for loss, a quarterback sack and a couple hurries, and a tackle total around 15. With his sideline-to-sideline speed against a Missouri offense eager to spread the gaps, Martez is better equipped than J. Leman or Brit Miller to man the middle against the Tigers.