I went to Dayton and have followed these guys very closely since I left. They never cease to amaze you both with games where they rise up and beat teams that they aren't supposed to (Top 10 Pitt and top 15 Marquette come to mind in the last couple of years) but they also lose to teams like Duquesne at times. Brian Gregory has done a pretty good job of recruiting, but his strong point is team defense, and I expect that to be the theme to the game...The Starting Bigs...
WARNING!!! Chris "Top Flight" Wright PF- Junior, has 62 dunks on the season, and he WILL throw down at least one big one... I promise you. Weber joked that he doesn't think our whole team has 62 dunks this year. I linked his dunk last year where he posterizes Maurice Ager Meyers Leonard style... He'd be the most athletic player on our team, (although it's hard to compare him to Brandon Paul who I think is just out of this world athletically.) but his offense can be a little sporadic... in fact... keep that word in mind because the whole Dayton offense can be that way. The Illini offered Wright as did a lot of top schools. He was a top 45 recruit by Rivals and luckily for UD he decided to play ball 5 minutes from home in Dayton Arena. It will be a challenge for Tisdale and Davis to get close to the basket like they did last night (we had 40 paint points). I believe that the inside presence of Dayton will be felt mostly when we are on offense.
Kurt Huelsman-Senior C. Kurt doesn't do a whole lot on offense, scoring like 4 points per game, but his 6'10" 245 lbs. frame helps on defense. He's been getting good minutes since he stepped on the floor as a freshman, and if a guy his size is only getting 4 points, 4 rebounds per game, and still starting... well I think that alludes to his solid defense.
The starting Guards.
London Warren, Senior PG, leads the team, and I would compare him to Clemson's Andre Young in terms of speed, but without the finishing ability. He's a very easy going and laid back guy off of the court, and players love to be around him... that translates to his basketball leadership because you can tell that the team trusts him. Back-up point guard Rob Lowery has almost double Warren's points per game this year, but the team still turns to London to carry the ball up court. Warren doesn't score much, but look for him to be a set-up guy often as the clock runs down.
Marcus Johnson, another senior, is the on-off guy who can change a game. One day Marcus will put up 25 points, and the next night he will put up 6. Like most of the rest of the team, he plays hard on defense. Marcus will be the guy who challenges you one on one for drives to the lane, puts up turn around fade aways, and puts up off balance leaners... some of which miss badly, and some nights it's all bottoms of the net.
Chris Johnson, a sophomore, plays a sort of guard/forward combo. At 6'6", he can be a tough match-up for some small forwards because like the rest of the starters, (with the exception of Huelsman) he is very athletic. If we have Bill Cole guarding him to start the game, I look for the Flyers to take it at him because I don't think Cole can shuffle side to side fast enough to cover Johnson. He can step out and shoot it (170 3PA, 35%), but I wouldn't call him a "shooting big" like I would Davis.
Important Bench Players
Mickey Perry, Guard transfer out of Wisconsin. I list Perry because he's scored in double digits 5 times this year, but really I don't see him having much of an impact.
Rob Lowery, Back up Point Guard who also happens to have Little Wayne hair like the starter. Dayton found out how important he was when he went down last season for an extended period of time, and the guard play seemed to struggle from fatigue on defense.
Luke Fabrizius- 6'9" forward from Arlington Heights who can just light it up from three. He was forced to miss 12 games this year with injuries, but still managed to knock down 33 three balls at a 42% clip. If Davis is guarding Fab, and he starts slacking off, I could see this being a game changer. Don't let his 5 points per game fool you because he missed between 2 and 5 games in a row three times this season, plus another game later so some of his outings were 4 minutes or less whereas in the beginning of the year he was getting 20+.
Paul Williams. I still think Williams is a year away from showing us the player he can become, but I list him because he is really one of the only shooters on a team that loves to work you on the dribble inside. Williams was up for Mr. Basketball in Michigan a couple of years ago and signed with Dayton as sort of a surprise to a lot of people because Michigan had interest, but the scholarship situation was cloudy so he pulled the trigger for UD.
Dayton's Strengths
1. Athleticism
2. Defense
3. 7 Seniors
Dayton's weaknesses
1. Dayton's not a good road team (4-8 on the road this season compared to 18-4 at home or neutral).
2. Holding onto leads
3. Gregory is never going to win an XO battle with a good coach
4. Not a whole lot of outside shooting from the starters.
I say the Illini can win this one if we are shooting the ball at a decent mark, but if we show up and shoot like we did for the first 30 minutes last night, we will probably lose. We need to be careful with our passes as Dayton will run you to death on turnovers. I expect Tisdale and Davis to float because it's hard to get a lot off inside... I know Huelsman has no stats to back it up, but for some reason he has been a mainstay in a rotation that has been able to boast a pretty good defense the last couple of years. I'm excited for this match-up because I honestly think that Dayton and Illinois both could have competed in this year's NCAA's, even if their numbers didn't get them in. Dayton's RPI was 54 and SOS was 33... don't expect this to be easy just because it's an NIT team from the A-10. I do have the Illini winning and moving on to NYC, I have the score in the mid to lower 60's... take your pick but lets say 66-63 Illini.
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